Articles et chapitres publiés en externe

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    A Mathematical Model Exploring the Impact of Climatic Factors on Malaria Transmission Dynamics in Burundi
    (Journal of Applied Mathematics and Physics, 2024-11) Gatore Sinigirira, Kelly Joëlle; Et al.
    Mathematical modeling plays a crucial role in understanding the dynamics of malaria transmission and can provide valuable insights for designing effective control strategies. Malaria indeed faces significant challenges due to a changing climate, particularly in regions where the disease is endemic. This disease is significantly impacted by changes in climate, especially rising temperatures and fluctuating rainfall patterns. This study explores the influence of temperature and rainfall abundance on malaria transmission dynamics within the context of Burundi. We have constructed a deterministic model that integrates these climatic parameters into the dynamics of the human host-mosquito vector system. The model’s steady states and basic reproduction number, calculated using the next-generation method, reveal important insights. Numerical simulations demonstrate that both temperature and rainfall significantly influence mosquito population dynamics, leading to distinct effects on malaria transmission. Specifically, we observe that temperatures between 20˚C and 32˚C, along with rainfall ranging from 10 to 30 mm per month, create optimal conditions for mosquito development, thus driving malaria transmission in Burundi. Furthermore, our findings indicate a delayed relationship between rainfall and malaria cases. When rainfall peaks in a given month, malaria does not peak immediately but instead shows a lagged response. Similarly, when rainfall decreases, malaria incidence drops after a certain time lag. This same lagged effect is observed when comparing temperature with confirmed malaria cases in Burundi. These findings highlight the urgent need to consider climate factors in malaria control strategies.
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    Vaccination strategies to achieve outbreak control for MPXV Clade I with a one-time mass campaign in sub-Saharan Africa: A scenario-based modelling study
    (PLOS Medicine, 2025-09) Shihui, Jin
    Limited mpox vaccination coverage, declining cross-protection from historical smallpox vaccination campaigns, and persistent zoonotic reservoirs leave many sub-Saharan countries susceptible to mpox outbreaks. With millions of vaccine doses made available to the region since late 2024 and the absence of country-specific guidelines for allocation, estimating the country-specific impact of one-time mass vaccination strategies is necessary for ongoing outbreaks and other countries at future risk.
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    Disentangling Temporal Trends of Clade Ib Monkeypox Virus Transmission in Burundi
    (The JID BRIEF REPORT, 2025-09) Shihui, Jin; Et al.
    Utilizing mpox case data from Burundi between August 2024 and April 2025, we calibrated a mathematical model to quantify the temporal trends of clade Ib monkeypox virus transmission. The model outputs indicated a declining overall transmission trend. Children aged 0–4 and 5–9 years were estimated to be at higher risk of infection compared to older age groups, while sexual contact was inferred to contribute up to 50% of the overall transmission.
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    Exploring predictive frameworks for malaria in Burundi
    (Infectious Disease Modelling 7, 2022-03) Mfisimana, Lionel Divin; Et al.
    In Burundi, malaria infection has been increasing in the last decade despite efforts to increase access to health services, and several intervention programs. The use of heterogeneous data can help to build predictive models of malaria cases. We built predictive frameworks: the generalized linear model (GLM), and artificial neural network (ANN), to predict malaria cases in four sub-groups and the overall general population. Descriptive results showed that more than half of malaria infections are observed in pregnant women and children under 5 years, with high burden to children between 12 and 59 months. Modelling results showed that, ANN model performed better in predicting total cases compared to GLM. Both model frameworks showed that education rates and Insecticide Treated Bed Nets (ITNs) had decreasing effects on malaria cases, some other variables had an increasing effect. Thus, malaria control and prevention interventions program are encouraged to understand those variables, and take appropriate measures such as providing ITNs, sensitization in schools and the communities, starting within high dense communities, among others. Early prediction of cases can provide timely information needed to be proactive for intervention strategies, and it can help to mitigate the epidemicsand reduce its impact on populations and the economy.
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    Performance of highly sensitive and conventional rapid diagnostic tests for clinical and subclinical Plasmodium falciparum infections, and hrp2/3 deletion status in Burundi
    (Sarah Auburn, Menzies School of Health Research, AUSTRALIA, 2022-06) Niyukuri, David; Et al.
    Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) are a key tool for the diagnosis of malaria infections among clinical and subclinical individuals. Low-density infections, and deletions of the P. falciparum hrp2/3 genes (encoding the HRP2 and HRP3 proteins detected by many RDTs) present challenges for RDT-based diagnosis. The novel Rapigen Biocredit three-band Plasmodium falciparum HRP2/LDH RDT was evaluated among 444 clinical and 468 subclinical individuals in a high transmission setting in Burundi. Results were compared to the AccessBio CareStart HRP2 RDT, and qPCR with a sensitivity of <0.3 parasites/μL blood. Sensitivity compared to qPCR among clinical patients for the Biocredit RDT was 79.9% (250/313, either of HRP2/LDH positive), compared to 73.2% (229/313) for CareStart (P = 0.048). Specificity of the Biocredit was 82.4% compared to 96.2% for CareStart. Among subclinical infections, sensitivity was 72.3% (162/224) compared to 58.5% (131/224) for CareStart (P = 0.003), and reached 88.3% (53/60) in children <15 years. Specificity was 84.4% for the Biocredit and 93.4% for the CareStart RDT. No (0/362) hrp2 and 2/366 hrp3 deletions were observed. In conclusion, the novel RDT showed improved sensitivity for the diagnosis of P.falciparum.
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    Predicting Malaria Dynamics in Burundi Using Deep Learning Models
    (Journal of Applied Mathematics and Physics,, 2024-08) Sakubu, Daxelle; Et al.
    Malaria continues to be a major public health problem on the African continent, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa despite the ongoing efforts and significant progress that has been made. In the case of Burundi, malaria remains a major public health concern in the general population. In the literature, there are limited malaria prediction models for Burundi knowing that such tools are much needed for intervention design. In this study, deep-learning models are built to estimate malaria cases in Burundi. The forecast of malaria cases was carried out both at the provincial and national levels. Long short term memory (LSTM) model, a type of deep learning model, has been used to achieve best results using climate-change related factors such as temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, together with malaria historical data and human population. With this model, the results showed that different parameter tuning can be used to determine the minimum and maximum expected malaria cases. The univariate version of that model (LSTM), which learns from previous dynamics of malaria cases, gives more precise estimates, but both univariate and multivariate models have the same overall trends at the province level and country level.
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    Inferring HIV Transmission Network Determinants Using Agent-Based Models Calibrated to Multi-Data Sources
    (Academic Editor: Ricardo Lopez-Ruiz, 2021-10) Niyukuri, David; Et al.
    Background: Calibration of Simpact Cyan can help to improve estimates related to the transmission dynamics of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV). Age-mixing patterns in sexual partnerships, onward transmissions, and temporal trends of HIV incidence are determinants which can inform the design of efficient prevention, and linkage-to-care programs. Using an agent-based model (ABM) simulation tool, we investigated, through a simulation study, if estimates of these determinants can be obtained with high accuracy by combining summary features from different data sources. (2) Methods: With specific parameters, we generated the benchmark data, and calibrated the default model in three scenarios based on summary features for comparison. For calibration, we used Latin Hypercube Sampling approach to generate parameter values, and Approximation Bayesian Computation to choose the best fitting ones. In all calibration scenarios the mean square root error was used as a measure to depict the estimates accuracy. (3) Results: The accuracy measure showed relatively no difference between the three scenarios. Moreover, we found that in all scenarios, age and gender strata incidence trends were poorly estimated. (4) Conclusions: Using synthetic benchmarks, we showed that it is possible to infer HIV transmission dynamics using an ABM of HIV transmission. Our results suggest that any type of summary feature provides adequate information to estimate HIV transmission network determinants. However, it is advisable to check the level of accuracy of the estimates of interest using benchmark data.
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    Histoire rurale de l’Afrique des grands lacs : Guide de recherches
    (UB, le Centre de Recherches africaines (Paris : 1), 1985) Chrétien, J.P
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    Burundi l'artisanat créateur
    (ACCT, 1982) Anquetil, Jacques
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    Evaluation of a health systems strengthening intervention to improve Ebola Virus Disease infection prevention and control in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
    (Journal of Global Health Reports Vol. 6, 2022, 2022-06) Ousman, Kevin; Thumath M, McKay G,; et al.
    The Democratic Republic of Congo declared their tenth outbreak of Ebola in North Kivu in 2018, which was the second-largest in the world and took place in an active conflict zone. Transmission of Ebola occurs by direct contact with infected bodily fluids and can occur within facilities when infection prevention and control (IPC) precautions are not strictly practised.
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    Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Agricultural Plains of Cul-de-Sac, Maribahoux, and Léogâne (1997–2024): An Analysis Using Remote Sensing and Landscape Metrics
    (Academic Editor: Libang Ma, 2025-11) Jesuka, Roselande; Et al.
    In Haiti, uncontrolled urbanization is increasing pressure on agricultural landscapes, compromising both their ecological integrity and productivity. This study examines spatiotemporal land-use changes across three agricultural plains, Cul-de-Sac, Maribahoux, and Léogâne, between 1997 and 2024, using Landsat imagery and landscape metrics of composition (percentage of landscape, PLAND) and configuration (largest patch index, LPI). The findings reveal a rapid expansion of built-up areas, primarily at the expense of farmland. In the Cul-de-Sac plain, built-up areas and bare soil grew by 152%, from 41.26 km2 to 104.11 km2, while agricultural land became highly fragmented (LPI dropping from 94.51% to 57.63%). In Maribahoux, urbanization was more moderate, partly offset by a temporary rise in woody vegetation that peaked at 20.04% in 2022 before declining. The Léogâne plain experienced a 17.38 km2 increase in built-up areas and bare soil, alongside a slight decrease in woody vegetation. Population density showed limited differences in Maribahoux and Léogâne, but marked disparities in Cul-de-Sac, where landscape transformation was more pronounced. These findings highlight increasing fragmentation of agricultural landscapes, threatening ecological connectivity and functionality, and stress the urgent need for land-use planning that curbs urban growth, protects farmland, and safeguards biodiversity.
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    Évaluation des apprentissages et analyse des pratiques de classe au Burundi
    (UB, IPA, 2020-07) Nduwingoma, Pierre; Ntwari, Innocent; Ntahonkuriye, Merchior
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    Les représentations des enseignants sur la place du numérique en contexte de pandémie au Burundi
    (Colloqueinternational du RAIFFET, 2025-05) Irambona, Rénovate; Ntwari, Innocent
    The aim of this study was to identify teachers' representations of the use of digital technology in the teaching-learning process in the context of the covid-19 pandemic. In Burundi, 106 secondary school teachers answered a questionnaire on their knowledge of ICT and their attitudes towards the use of digital technology in teaching. The results show that these teachers claim to have a low level of information on the use of digital distance technologies in education. Teachers are not trained in this area, and as a result 79.2% of teachers say they have no knowledge of ICT for teaching at a distance, which justifies the need for training in the use of digital technology in education. The fact that 89.42% are in favor, or even very much in favor, of organizing training courses is an asset for future actions, which will not meet with resistance from teachers, who will on the other hand be motivated. This shortage of ICT-trained teachers explains why Burundi had no experience of using digital technology during the Covid 19 pandemic. Also, schools were poorly equipped with IT tools. While this study focused on secondary school teachers, the situation of higher education teachers may not be far off in the same country. Studies should be conducted to adress the situation.
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    L’inclusion scolaire au Burundi : quelles conceptions et pratiques des enseignants au regard de leur formation ?
    (Revue Internationale du chercheur, Volume 4, Numéro 2, pp : 178- 201, 2023-04) Ndikumasabo, Josias; Ntwari, Innocent; Bizimana, Jean Berchmans
    The aim of this study was to identify the conceptions and practices reported by teachers of students with special needs during their interventions in ordinary classes. The data were collected by means of a questionnaire survey among 205 teachers who agreed to cooperate in the work. The data were processed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) software. The results of this survey show that the declared practices are characterised by a strong "inclusive" valence with regard to their declared intervention strategies, and this independently of the training they have received. On the other hand, the conceptions revealed by the participants in the study remain essentially 'non-inclusive' as a result of their dissatisfaction with what they consider to be relevant for including pupils with learning difficulties.
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    Comparaison entre la gestion forestière au Burundi et en aquitaine : Quels Enseignements peut-on en tirer ?
    (CIRAD-FORET, 1996) Ndikumagenge, Cléto; Sous la direction de : Mr Didier MULLER
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    Influence du recours aux pratiques thérapeutiques traditionnelles à la lutte antipaludique
    (ZAOULI N°10, Vol. 1, pp.230-256, 2025-06) Nkurunziza, Egide; Sadiki, Elie; Ehui Prisca, Justine; Minani, Rosette
    The aim of this article is to describe the therapeutic responses of the population to malaria. Malaria has always been a major public health problem in Burundi. Once found only in low-lying areas, it is currently an epidemic in the commune of Rutegama, despite the development of modern medicine. With this in mind, we carried out a field study among healers, pharmacologists, nurses, community health workers, representatives of local religious denominations (Catholic and Protestant churches), the head of the national integrated malaria control programme, health centre managers, heads of families, women, malaria sufferers and non-malaria sufferers to understand why malaria is spreading so alarmingly in the central highlands. The information collected was gathered through observation and interviews, with content analysis.
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    Etat des lieux de la recherche sur la paix et la reconciliation au Burundi et dans la region des Grands Lacs
    (theologie.geschichte, 2024) Banuza, Alexis; Et al.
    Le Burundi et le reste Pays de la Région des Grands Lacs sont confrontés à des guerres et à des violences cycliques qui, engendrent des conséquences lourdes sur leurs habitants et sur leur développement intégral. De nombreuses initiatives de paix ont eu lieu, mais sa situation sécuritaire reste toujours incertaine. Le présent rapport sur l’état des lieux de la recherche sur la paix et la réconciliation au Burundi et dans la région des grands lacs, ressort d’un projet de Consolidation de la paix dans cette Région qui, a été initié par la Communauté des Pères de Schoenstatt à Mont Sion Gikungu et l’Université du Burundi, en collaboration avec l’Université de Fribourg. Il s’agit d’un travail de recherche exploratoire qui entre dans le cadre de la mise en oeuvre du deuxième objectif du dit projet, s’intéressant à la promotion de la recherche-action sur la paix et la réconciliation. La réalisation de ce rapport a fait recours à des outils de recherche qualitative suivante : Des entretiens menés avec des personnes ressources et l’analyse documentaire des différents documents scientifiques. Ainsi 19 personnes ressources ont été interrogées, s’ajoutant à 162 documents (73 mémoires de master issu de la chaire Unesco/DESS, 7 mémoires de Licence trouvés dans la Bibliothèque de l’U.B, 11 thèses et autres mémoires trouvés dans d‘autres bibliothèques, 14 magazines consultés au Centre Ubuntu, 9 études commanditées, 6 autres documents consultés (inédits), 42 ouvrages et articles publiés) consultés. Nombreux d’entre eux sont anciens. D’autres documents trouvés au sein de certaines organisations sont en rapport avec les manuels de formation et de sensibilisation sur la paix et la réconciliation. Les thèmes développés sont centrés sur : Foi et paix ; (2) Femme et paix ; (3) Mémoires blessées et paix ; (4) Mémoires blessées et réconciliation ; (5) Pauvreté et paix ; (6) Valeur d’Ubuntu et paix ; (7) Ethique de la politique et paix ; (8) Accord d’Arusha et la réconciliation au Burundi ; (9) Justice et réconciliation ; (10) Transformation des conflits et paix ; (11) Education à la paix ; (12) Education et paix et ; (12) La valeur d’Ubushingantahe et la réconciliation au Burundi. Sur 32 des auteurs qui ont travaillé sur les thématiques de paix et réconciliation la majorité sont des chercheurs qui le font pour une occasion bien précise ou qui saisissent une opportunité qui s’offre et orientent la thématique vers les dimensions historiques et sciences humaines. Malgré le caractère scientifique des travaux déjà réalisé, un grand nombre n’a pas été soumis à la publication dans des revues scientifiques, car il s’agit des mémoires de licence, de master (produit dans le cadre du programme de la Chaire UNESCO), des rapports d’études commanditées par les ONG et institutions qui s’intéressent à la paix, des manuels / modules de formation. Également, la question de la justice sociale comme obstacle de la paix et réconciliation, une possibilité de réparation ainsi que les aspects traumatiques qui seraient une entrave à la réconciliation n’ont pas été affronté. Ces thèmes pourraient porter intérêt aux recherches ultérieures.
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    Stratégies de débrouillardise comme moyen de résilience après l’abandon scolaire chez les jeunes burundais
    (Relecture d’Afrique, Vol 1 N°2, 2025-01) Minani, Rosette; Shemezimana, Alexandre; Banshimiyubusa, Denis
    L’éducation scolaire est une condition indispensable qui facilite une intégration socio-professionnelle. Mais au Burundi, il y a des enfants qui abandonnent l’école sans avoir terminé le parcours scolaire. Comment ces enfants parviennent-ils à s’intégrer dans la société ? Cet article fait une analyse des stratégies de débrouillardise comme moyen de résilience après l’abandon scolaire chez les jeunes burundais. Il s’agit d’une étude qualitative faite sur l’ensemble des décrocheurs ayant abandonné l’école fondamentale ainsi que leurs parents de la commune Musongati en Province Rutana. A travers des outils d’analyse appropriés, les résultats montrent que le vécu quotidien de ces jeunes est caractérisé par des comportements différents. Les activités et les stratégies de débrouillardises qu’ils utilisent constituent leur moyen de résilience. Ainsi, après l’abandon scolaire, ces jeunes font recours aux activités du secteur primaire, secondaire et tertiaire. Parmi les difficultés rencontrées par ces enfants, il y a l’analphabétisme, le travail lourd sans rémunération et la migration vers la Tanzanie.
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    Les perceptions du paludisme comme facteurs socioanthroplogiques influent sur l’itinéraire thérapeutique des patients adultes au Burundi
    (Revue Fulbright- Afrique, 2025-05) Minani, Rosette
    The main objective of this article is to study perceptions of malaria as socio-anthropological factors influencing the therapeutic itinerary of adult patients in Burundi. This is a mixed exploratory study carried out among the Burundian population, taking into account their geographical situation (rural and urban). Qualitative and quantitative methods were used during data collection from 30 patients in the Kibuye Health District for the qualitative part while quantitative data were collected from 4248 patients from the 47 Health Districts in Burundi. A thematic content analysis was carried out for the qualitative data while the quantitative data were processed and analyzed using SPSS software. Results reveal that, in Burundi, the perception of malaria and the search for care are complex. The causes of the disease are linked to anthropomorphology and amphibology. This leads Burundians to seek care in different places. In order to provide better care for this disease, the Government, through the Ministry of health, would ensure that these perceptions are taken into consideration. Good cooperation between health institutions, on the one hand, and the population, on the other, is desirable in the fight against this endemic