Vaccination strategies to achieve outbreak control for MPXV Clade I with a one-time mass campaign in sub-Saharan Africa: A scenario-based modelling study

Abstract

Limited mpox vaccination coverage, declining cross-protection from historical smallpox vaccination campaigns, and persistent zoonotic reservoirs leave many sub-Saharan countries susceptible to mpox outbreaks. With millions of vaccine doses made available to the region since late 2024 and the absence of country-specific guidelines for allocation, estimating the country-specific impact of one-time mass vaccination strategies is necessary for ongoing outbreaks and other countries at future risk.