Evaluation de l’hétérogénéité culturale et régionale de l’impact économique du changement climatique au Burundi
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Date
2025-11
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UB - FSEG
Abstract
The empirical literature on the relationship between climate change, agriculture, and the economy in Burundi does not address how the economic impacts of climate change vary across agricultural crops and agro-climatic regions. This thesis aims to assess the heterogeneity of the economic impacts of climate change on the eight main crops across Burundi’s agro-climatic regions. Three specific objectives contribute to this aim: (i) Assess past and future climate change in Burundi; (ii) Estimate, in each region, the effect of climate on crop choice and on the net revenue of the chosen crop; (iii) Simulate the impacts of future climate change on crop choice and net crop revenue for each agro-climatic region. Climate change was measured by comparing the reference climate (1991–2019) with the past (1975–1990) and with GCM projections for 2021–2040 and 2041–2060. The multinomial logit model using the quasi-experimental IV-2SRI approach was estimated to determine the effect of climate on crop choice, while the Structural Ricardian Model using the quasi-experimental IV-2SLS approach was used to estimate the effect of climate on the net revenue of the chosen crop. These models determine net revenue under the reference climate and simulate net revenue under climate projections; the difference between these two net revenues represents the economic impact of climate change.
The results show that in 2021–2040, Burundi will experience a warming of 1.15–1.18 °C, reaching 2.09–2.81 °C in 2041–2060. This warming, accompanied by a slight increase in precipitation and controlling for other socioeconomic variables, will modify crop choices: maize will remain dominant, while rice, beans, and sweet potatoes will be less frequently chosen, especially in warmer regions. Climate change will reduce the revenue of beans, rice, and bananas in the Imbo Plain, Central Plateau, and Northern/Eastern Depressions, but will increase the revenue of cassava and cassava-bean systems in cooler regions (Mumirwa, Congo-Nile Ridge). At the national level, cassava (+0.85 to +10.93%), cassava-bean (+4.78 to +5.92%), and sweet potatoes will be more resilient, while rice (-23.85 to -5.0%) and bananas will be more vulnerable. The Central Plateau (-6.1 to -4.07%) and the Imbo Plain (-14.08 to -1.01%) will be vulnerable, while the initially humid regions will be more resilient. These results suggest, on the one hand, the need for adaptation strategies targeted to specific crops and regions, and on the other hand, mitigation activities and programs to slow down climate change.
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Mémoire
présenté et défendu publiquement en vue de l’obtention d’un Diplôme de Master en Economie Rurale, Sociale et de l’Environnement Option : Economie de l’Environnement et de Ressources Naturelles