Statistic Modeling for Understanding the Origin of the Random Effects in the Tax Revenues Panel Data System in DR-Congo : Case of North-Kivu Province
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Date
2021
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Publisher
Mathematical and Statistical Economics
Abstract
Forecasting tax revenues, particularly in Democratic Republic of the Congo economy, is an uphill task. Recent past of the country has been dominated by economic uncertainty, precisely in mining and in agriculture sectors. This factor, alone, has greatly contributed to high volatility of tax revenues collected by customs officers. The fuzzy characteristic of tax revenues has made it quite impossible for researchers to detect or distinguish from randomness the three well
known components of a classical time series, precisely trends, seasonality, and cyclical phenomena .What are the factors which explain the random effects in the
tax revenues panel in DRC? Our purpose is to detect and understand the origin of the random effects in the tax revenues panel data in DR-Congo through statistics about citizen’s perceptions around tax operation. A quantitative questionnaire with scaled values, open and closed questions, consisting in collecting various perceptions of different economic operators in the import-export sector has been administered to 170 taxpayers randomly selected. Through Analysis of variance, t-test analysis and Pearson Chi-square results show that dissatisfaction of taxpayers, lack of legitimacy in political institutions and government policies,
highest tax rate, non-compliance with tax rate for all taxpayers, low level of knowledge in tax matters and corruption, fraud and tax evasion perpetuated by customs officers are the most factors which explain the random effects in DRC’s tax revenues panel data. Marital status is not a source influencing taxation. Mind
of counterpart of the taxes in terms of achievements for improving social conditions which is not visible involves broken contract between taxpayers and tax authorities for several reasons sources of random effects above developed.
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