Modélisation du revenu vital durable et résilience des ménages ruraux pour une sécurité alimentaire et nutritionnelle au Burundi
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Date
2026-07
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
UB, ED
Abstract
Food security and the achieving of a sustainable vital income constitute critical challenges for rural households in Burundi, 84% of whom depend on agriculture vulnerable to climate hazards, low productivity, and land fragmentation. In this context, this doctoral research examines the determinants of sustainable vital income and household resilience in two contrasting livelihood zones : the Northern Depression and the Humid Central Plateaus. It analyzes their socio-economic vulnerability, identi es resilience levers, and proposes an early warning system for food insecurity. The methodology relies on a survey of 384 households, the exploitation of secondary data collected from INSBU and IGEBU, and
quantitative analyses including econometric modeling, household typology, and technical ine ciency estimation.
The results reveal a structural gap between actual income and vital income, the latter being set at 3,242,200 BIF 7/household/year in 2024, while the mean actual income amounts to 2,906,712.87 BIF 8 in the Northern Depression and 2,222,662.50 BIF 9 in the Humid Central Plateaus, yielding a global average of 2,528,074 BIF 10, well below the decency threshold. This generalized precarity is exacerbated by low agricultural productivity, an average technical ine ciency of 29.9%, and recurrent exposure to climate shocks.
Food insecurity is con rmed by mean FIES scores of 2.99 and 3.17, re ecting moderate to severe deprivation. Three typological pro les emerge : a group with relatively high incomes but structural food insecurity, located in the
Northern Depression ; a resilient group, due to food self-su ciency and e ective agricultural diversi cation, located in the Central Plateaus ; a group in chronic food crisis despite a favorable agroecological environment.
The econometric analysis establishes robust causal links between agricultural practices, human capital, and food security. Diversi cation of annual and perennial crops reduces the probability of a poor food consumption score by 5.66%. Each additional cropping season increases the probability of escaping severe insecurity by 1.11%, and a higher education level of the household head increases the probability of an acceptable score by 3.35%.
The adoption of agroforestry, notably the integration of fruit trees and shade species with annual crops, emerges as a resilience strategy, generating an average agricultural income 24.4% higher (2,724,110 BIF 11 vs. 2,189,132 BIF 12) compared to non-agroforestry systems, with a highly signi cant di erence (p = 0.0012). However, the adoption of these sustainable practices remains hindered by limited access to modern inputs for 27% of households in the Northern Depression, 43% in the Central Plateaus, and extreme land fragmentation.
In light of these results, we outline three strategic recommendations : enhance technical e ciency and agricultural productivity via targeted access to modern inputs and the promotion of sustainable agroforestry systems to bridge the ine ciency gap and bring actual incomes closer to the vital threshold ; institutionalize a decentralized Early Warning System integrating validated indicators such as income, FIES, agricultural diversi cation, agroforestry adoption, and climate risks to trigger di erentiated responses based on the three identi ed household pro les ; integrate into public policies a diversi cation of livelihoods, both agricultural like annual crops, perennial crops and agroforestry and non-agricultural like agricultural product processing and commercialisation, demonstrated to signi cantly reduce food insecurity, particularly for households facing land fragmentation, in alignment with the National Development Plan 2018 2027 and the Sustainable Development Goals.
Description
Thèse présentée et défendue en vue de l'obtention du grade de Docteur en Sécurité Alimentaire et Changement Climatique
Keywords
Living income, Food security, Rural household resilience, Agroforestry, Early Warning System, Socio-economic vulnerability, Climate change, Burundi.