Le rôle de la diplomatie préventive dans la gestion des tensions diplomatiques entre le Burundi et le Rwanda : impératif de la médiation régionale

Abstract

This dissertation analyzes preventive diplomacy as a key instrument of regional mediation in the context of diplomatic tensions between Burundi and Rwanda from 2015 to 2024. It contributes to the reflection on peaceful conflict management mechanisms in the Great Lakes region, which is characterized by persistent instability. The main objective of the study is to identify the root causes of the deterioration of diplomatic relations between the two countries and to assess the role of regional mediation. The research is based on a qualitative methodology combining document analysis and interviews with experts. The findings show that these tensions result from multiple and interconnected factors, including historical, political, and security dimensions. Mutual accusations, internal political crises, and the legacy of past conflicts have contributed to a lasting climate of mistrust between the two states. The study also highlights the crucial role of preventive diplomacy in managing crises through mechanisms such as mediation, good offices, and multilateral diplomacy. In this regard, regional organizations such as the East African Community (EAC), the African Union, and the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) play an important role in promoting dialogue and preventing conflicts. However, their effectiveness remains limited by persistent mistrust, lack of political will, and institutional weaknesses. In conclusion, regional mediation appears to be a fundamental pillar of preventive diplomacy, whose effectiveness depends on the commitment of states and the strengthening of regional mechanisms.