Browsing by Author "Nduwimana, Jean Paul"

Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Analyse des effets de seuil de l’aide publique au développement sur la croissance économique en Afrique (1996-2022)
    (UB, FSEA, 2025-06) Nduwimana, Jean Paul; Sous la direction du : Pr. Arcade Ndoricimpa
    The objective of this study is to analyze the threshold effects of official development assistance (ODA) on economic growth in African countries, categorizing them into two groups: low-income countries and middle-income countries. To achieve this, the study relies on data from the World Development Indicators (WDI), Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI), and Penn World Table (PWT) covering the period from 1996 to 2022. It employs a panel threshold regression model (PTR) to determine, using the "Bootstrap" method, the threshold level of aid below which its effectiveness is manifested. The results of this analysis strongly support the idea that the relationship between aid and growth in Africa is non-linear, with a threshold of 23.07% of GDP. Beyond this threshold, aid becomes ineffective in stimulating growth, all else being equal. Furthermore, for low-income African countries, the ODA threshold is set at 31.33% of GDP, below which the effect on economic growth is positive, while above this, this effect becomes ineffective. For middle-income African countries, this threshold for official development assistance is 10.12% of GDP, below which ODA promotes growth, and beyond which its effect proves ineffective. After accounting for endogeneity using 2SLS and SGMM methods, the results suggest that the volume of ODA can be accumulated up to 23.07% of GDP in Africa; 31.33% of GDP for low-income countries and 10.12% of GDP for middle-income countries. These values represent the levels of ODA that should not be exceeded to ensure its effectiveness on economic growth.