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Le dépôt numérique grenier du savoir du Burundi est une collection de documents scientifiques produits par les chercheurs de l'Université du Burundi, y compris des mémoires, des thèses, des revues, des articles, des rapports techniques, etc. Il s'agit du dépôt institutionnel officiel de l'Université du Burundi
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A Mathematical Model Exploring the Impact of Climatic Factors on Malaria Transmission Dynamics in Burundi
(Journal of Applied Mathematics and Physics, 2024-11) Gatore Sinigirira, Kelly Joëlle; Et al.
Mathematical modeling plays a crucial role in understanding the dynamics of malaria transmission and can provide valuable insights for designing effective control strategies. Malaria indeed faces significant challenges due to a changing
climate, particularly in regions where the disease is endemic. This disease is significantly impacted by changes in climate, especially rising temperatures and fluctuating rainfall patterns. This study explores the influence of temperature
and rainfall abundance on malaria transmission dynamics within the context of Burundi. We have constructed a deterministic model that integrates these climatic parameters into the dynamics of the human host-mosquito vector system. The model’s steady states and basic reproduction number, calculated using the next-generation method, reveal important insights. Numerical simulations demonstrate that both temperature and rainfall significantly influence mosquito population dynamics, leading to distinct effects on malaria transmission. Specifically, we observe that temperatures between 20˚C and 32˚C, along with rainfall ranging from 10 to 30 mm per month, create optimal conditions for mosquito development, thus driving malaria transmission in Burundi. Furthermore, our findings indicate a delayed relationship between rainfall and malaria cases. When rainfall peaks in a given month, malaria does not peak immediately but instead shows a lagged response. Similarly, when rainfall decreases, malaria incidence drops after a certain time lag. This same lagged effect is observed when comparing temperature with confirmed malaria cases in Burundi. These findings highlight the urgent need to consider climate factors in malaria control strategies.
Vaccination strategies to achieve outbreak control for MPXV Clade I with a one-time mass campaign in sub-Saharan Africa: A scenario-based modelling study
(PLOS Medicine, 2025-09) Shihui, Jin
Limited mpox vaccination coverage, declining cross-protection from historical smallpox vaccination campaigns, and persistent zoonotic reservoirs leave many sub-Saharan countries susceptible to mpox outbreaks. With millions of vaccine doses made available to the region since late 2024 and the absence of country-specific guidelines for allocation, estimating the country-specific impact of one-time mass vaccination strategies is necessary for ongoing outbreaks and other countries at future risk.
Disentangling Temporal Trends of Clade Ib Monkeypox Virus Transmission in Burundi
(The JID BRIEF REPORT, 2025-09) Shihui, Jin; Et al.
Utilizing mpox case data from Burundi between August 2024 and April 2025, we calibrated a mathematical model to quantify the temporal trends of clade Ib monkeypox virus transmission. The model outputs indicated a declining overall transmission trend. Children aged 0–4 and 5–9 years were estimated to be at higher risk of infection compared to older age groups, while sexual contact was inferred to contribute up to 50% of the overall transmission.
Exploring predictive frameworks for malaria in Burundi
(Infectious Disease Modelling 7, 2022-03) Mfisimana, Lionel Divin; Et al.
In Burundi, malaria infection has been increasing in the last decade despite efforts to increase access to health services, and several intervention programs. The use of heterogeneous data can help to build predictive models of malaria cases. We built predictive frameworks: the generalized linear model (GLM), and artificial neural network (ANN), to predict malaria cases in four sub-groups and the overall general population. Descriptive results showed that more than half of malaria infections are observed in pregnant women and children under 5 years, with high burden to children between 12 and 59 months. Modelling results showed that, ANN model performed better in predicting total cases compared to GLM. Both model frameworks showed that education rates and Insecticide Treated Bed Nets (ITNs) had decreasing effects on malaria cases, some other variables had an increasing effect. Thus, malaria control and prevention interventions program are encouraged to understand those variables, and take appropriate measures such as providing ITNs, sensitization in schools and the communities, starting within high dense communities, among others. Early prediction of cases can provide timely information needed to be proactive for intervention strategies, and it can help to mitigate the epidemicsand reduce its impact on populations and the economy.
Performance of highly sensitive and conventional rapid diagnostic tests for clinical and subclinical Plasmodium falciparum infections, and hrp2/3 deletion status in Burundi
(Sarah Auburn, Menzies School of Health Research, AUSTRALIA, 2022-06) Niyukuri, David; Et al.
Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) are a key tool for the diagnosis of malaria infections among clinical and subclinical individuals. Low-density infections, and deletions of the P. falciparum hrp2/3 genes (encoding the HRP2 and HRP3 proteins detected by many RDTs) present challenges for RDT-based diagnosis. The novel Rapigen Biocredit three-band Plasmodium falciparum HRP2/LDH RDT was evaluated among 444 clinical and 468 subclinical individuals in a high transmission setting in Burundi. Results were compared to the AccessBio CareStart HRP2 RDT, and qPCR with a sensitivity of <0.3 parasites/μL blood. Sensitivity compared to qPCR among clinical patients for the Biocredit RDT was 79.9% (250/313, either of HRP2/LDH positive), compared to 73.2% (229/313) for CareStart (P = 0.048). Specificity of the Biocredit was 82.4% compared to 96.2% for CareStart. Among subclinical infections, sensitivity was 72.3% (162/224) compared to 58.5% (131/224) for CareStart (P = 0.003), and reached 88.3% (53/60) in children <15 years. Specificity was 84.4% for the Biocredit and 93.4% for the CareStart RDT. No (0/362) hrp2 and 2/366 hrp3 deletions were observed. In conclusion, the novel RDT showed improved sensitivity for the diagnosis of P.falciparum.